Budget Forecast: free forecasting game for basic finance

What is Budget Forecast?

A bike shop, a tea room, a ski rental: each round shows three months of a made-up small business, and the CFO wants next month's number before the phone rings. Pick the right forecast with a simple method, the 3-month average, the trend, a growth rate or seasonality, then budget the profit and the cash. In the last four rounds, you choose the method yourself.

Budget Forecast is a free forecasting game. Each round shows three months of numbers from a made-up small business, a bike shop, a tea room, a ski rental, and asks for next month before the CFO calls. Four options are on the table: one follows the right method, and the others are the classic mix-ups, like forgetting to divide or ignoring the busy season.

The first rounds name the method: the 3-month average, the trend, a steady growth rate or seasonality. Then come profit, with fixed and variable costs, and cash at the end of the month. In the last four rounds the method is hidden and only a clue describes the numbers, so you choose. Every answer shows the full working.

At a glance

Category

Skillz

Difficulty

Hard

Play time

4–6 min

Price

Free, in your browser, sign-up optional

How to play

Read the numbers

Three months of sales, sometimes the same months a year ago, or the costs and cash for next month.

Pick the forecast

Four options: one follows the method, the others are classic mix-ups. Tap one or press 1 to 4.

Learn the method

Every answer shows the working: average, trend, growth rate, seasonality, profit or cash.

Score

100 per right forecast (150 when the method is hidden), up to 50 for speed and up to 50 for a streak. A wrong pick or the CFO's call costs one of 3 lives.

Scoring

Each right forecast scores 100 points (150 in the last four rounds, where the method is hidden), plus up to 50 for time left and up to 50 for a streak.

A wrong pick or the CFO's call (the clock running out) costs one of 3 lives. The clock drops from 50 to 32 seconds.

What it trains

Forecasting

Choosing between the 3-month average, the trend, a growth rate and seasonality.

Basic finance

Profit from fixed and variable costs, and why cash is not the same as profit.

Spotting mistakes

Seeing why the tempting wrong number is wrong: a missed step or the wrong method.

Strategy and tips

Look at the shape first

Flat and bumpy: average. Climbing by the same amount: trend. Each jump bigger: growth rate. One huge month: seasonality.

Trend in two steps

Average monthly change = (last month − first month) ÷ 2. Add it to last month.

Seasonality needs last year

Take the same month a year ago and scale it by how this year compares with last year.

Profit has two kinds of cost

Fixed costs stay the same; variable costs are a share of sales. Subtract both.

Cash is not profit

Cash at the end = cash at the start + money in − money out. A loss month can still leave money in the bank.

Why play Budget Forecast?

Every budget starts with a forecast, and most small-business forecasts use the simple methods in this game. Knowing which one fits the numbers, and spotting the common mistakes, matters more than fancy maths. Budget Forecast trains reading a few months of data quickly, choosing a method and checking that profit and cash add up.

Frequently asked questions