Forecast: 01/10
Lives: 3 lives left
Score: 0000
Best: --

Budget Forecast

Read last quarter's numbers and predict next month before the CFO calls. Averages, trends, seasons, profit and cash.

Budget Forecast

A bike shop, a tea room, a ski rental: each round shows three months of a made-up small business, and the CFO wants next month's number before the phone rings. Pick the right forecast with a simple method, the 3-month average, the trend, a growth rate or seasonality, then budget the profit and the cash. In the last four rounds, you choose the method yourself.

10 forecasts
Basic finance

How to play

Read the numbers. Three months of sales, sometimes the same months a year ago, or the costs and cash for next month.
Pick the forecast. Four options: one follows the method, the others are classic mix-ups. Tap one or press 1 to 4.
Learn the method. Every answer shows the working: average, trend, growth rate, seasonality, profit or cash.
Score. 100 per right forecast (150 when the method is hidden), up to 50 for speed and up to 50 for a streak. A wrong pick or the CFO's call costs one of 3 lives.

Quick tips

Look at the shape first. Flat and bumpy: average. Climbing by the same amount: trend. Each jump bigger: growth rate. One huge month: seasonality.
Trend in two steps. Average monthly change = (last month − first month) ÷ 2. Add it to last month.
Seasonality needs last year. Take the same month a year ago and scale it by how this year compares with last year.
Profit has two kinds of cost. Fixed costs stay the same; variable costs are a share of sales. Subtract both.
Cash is not profit. Cash at the end = cash at the start + money in − money out. A loss month can still leave money in the bank.